Risk Prediction of Progression to the Severe Stage of Covid-19 in Patients Admitted to Valiasr Hospital in Birjand

Abstract

Introduction: Early diagnosis and treatment are crucial for the survival of severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Various studies have shown the clinical characteristics of patients admitted to COVID-19 hospital. However, the predictors of the results are still unclear. Our objective was to investigate the presence of potential risk factors associated with disease severity progression in the natural history of COVID-19.

Methods: The present study is a retrospective monocentric study. In which part of patients with Covid-19 South Khorasan who are hospitalized in Valiasr Hospital in Birjand (except for patients who are in the very first stage of triage, in a very severe stage of the disease). They were examined and their symptoms were recorded. The information of patients who enter a very severe and critical stage of the disease and are transferred to intensive care units will be separated and patients will be divided based on clinical indicators. Finally, clinical, laboratory and therapeutic data from 111 patients admitted to Valiasr Hospital in Birjand were collected and analyzed with the approval of COVID-19 laboratory and the data collected from discharged and critically ill patients were compared.

Results: Of these 111 patients, 93 were discharged and 18 entered the acute phase of the disease. The number of lymphocytes (0.56 G / L vs. 1.3 G / L was lower in the exacerbated group than in the discharged group. The number of involved lung lobes was 5 vs. 4). Multivariate analysis showed that comorbidity [ (OR) 52.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.6–776.41], Sex (OR 24.8, 95% CI 1.8–342.1) were independent risk factors for disease severity in COVID-19 patients. Our results also show that CT intensity score is associated with the level of inflammation, and older age, higher neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and CT intensity score at the time of hospitalization are other independent risk factors affecting the short-term progression of the Covid virus. 19 are in these patients.

Conclusion: The results of this study facilitate the early identification of high-risk COVID-19 patients. These findings can be useful in predicting the risk of progression in patients with COVID-19 at the time of admission. A CT scan may help classify the risk.